My opinion on aliens and UFOs – Mon 19th Mar 07

You know, I think if aliens really were visiting our planet, you wouldn’t find out about it by watching the Sci-Fi channel or repeats on Bravo.

I’m going to go ahead and spell this out just as carefully as I can, so I don’t understate the issue. I want to show just how confident I am in this. And I think if anyone looks at the facts, they’ll probably agree: Aliens are NOT visiting earth. Every supposed alien ship or UFO is something else.

People who do believe that UFOs are real and we are being visited by alien life usually say something like “isn’t it a bit arrogant to totally deny that UFOs are real?!” or “you can’t believe that we’re alone in the universe!”

Note: the second statement is totally different to the first.

I think it is extremely probably that other creatures have evolved in the universe somewhere. The laws of natural selection should be universal where all organic life is concerned. Even if the odds of abiogenesis are extremely rare, it also seems extremely likely that the universe in its size would contain many earth-type worlds. The Milky Way alone contains approximately 250 billion stars. Even if only a fraction of these stars had planets, and even if only a fraction of these were earth-type planets, and even if only a fraction still had life-forms evolve on them…that’s still a very large number of aliens that could become intelligent and form civilisations.

Now for the cold water: the universe is over 15 billion years old. Humans have existed for about 200,000 years. That is, to use the scientific term: fuck all, in the scale of things. Now consider that humans have only been generating EM signals for about 150 years, which were scarce and weak at first; nowhere near the radio transmissions of today, especially as humans now actively send signals into space. But let’s be generous and grant 150 years. That means that only aliens within 150 light-years will have received these signals. (For comparison, our galaxy is over 660 times that distance.)

Let’s say humans received just such an alien signal 200 years ago. Ooops! Are you seeing the problem? 200 years ago we didn’t have the technology to receive it. And we probably couldn’t have understood it if we had. Let’s imagine that another alien race within the very small “sphere of detection” around Earth is still in its pre-industrial days. Our signals will mean nothing to them until their technology is at least as good as ours.

So, two forms of life; have to be both sapient; have to be technologically sophisticated (to some extent) and be able to transmit and receive signals across space; and have to co-exist at the same time. Of 200,000 years of human life, we’ve had suitable technology for probably 50 years. 50 years! The odds of another intelligent race also being around, and being near enough to detect us or be detected, within this time-frame, in a universe which is 15 billion years old…are astronomical (no pun intended).

It’s not just about other aliens existing; it’s about them existing at the same time as humans! They might have died out a thousand, a million, a billion, ten billions years ago! They might not evolve for another million years, or they might be living in caves right now. All of a sudden those “Best Evidence for UFOs yet!” documentaries don’t seem as intriguing now do they?

Even if there is a space-faring civilisation within 50 light years of Earth, to come and visit us requires several things: 1. They detected our presence through our transmissions and EM traffic very early on. 2. Blind luck. If number 1 doesn’t hold, to head in our direction and find us is, to say the least, against so many odds even Phil Collins wouldn’t sing a song about it.

And this is assuming that they started out 50 years ago, and can travel at the speed of light. This itself is a huge assumption; a little matter of it being theoretically impossible for anything but light to travel at that speed. But we could grant that a technological superior race, centuries ahead of our own, might have developed the technology to allow near-light speeds, or some equivalent thereof.

And even if we grant all the above, would aliens travel all this way to mutilate cattle, make crop circles, sexually abuse people, or only appear to people of dubious reliability? Isn’t it a little odd that, most of the time, people who don’t believe in aliens never get visited by them? (Very much like people who don’t believe in ghosts and demons are NEVER bothered by them? And people who don’t believe in god(s), NEVER hear them speaking to them??) Bit of coincidence huh?

Shouldn’t there be some verifiable evidence somewhere? Why is the only evidence dodgy camcorder footage or doubtful testimonials? When we look at it, the evidence of aliens isn’t much better than the evidence for the Loch Ness monster, ghosts, and gods.

When we look at the age of the universe compared to the age of man, the infinitesimally small amount of time we’ve been detectable, and/or looking for aliens; the distance of the universe which would separate us from any potential neighbours…and the problems involved in aliens actually travelling to us in the first place!… the notion of UFOs and alien visitors like we saw in The X-Files or reported by isolated hillbillies in the American outback seems pretty silly.

I wouldn’t class belief in aliens as similar to belief in ghosts or god. I believe that the existence of alien life is very likely, somewhere in the universe. I would LOVE to believe that aliens have visited us. I would love to believe that in my lifetime aliens will make contact with us! I would love to believe that this would usher in a whole new era of human unity, peace, and wonderfully-advanced technology (Star Trek style). As with everything else, I can’t allow my hopes and dreams to cloud my reality – I cannot bring myself to accept that aliens are visiting earth because it is so incredibly unlikely. I think belief in alien visitors is a matter of faith, because it cannot be considered rational.

Finally, you can see that I haven’t covered one common counter argument: aliens are visiting earth but governments are keeping it secret. This is the classic conspiracy theory, and as with all conspiracy theories, they are ultimately unfalsifiable, if self-consistent. That is, assuming the theory doesn’t actually contradict itself or is expressly disprovable, it is impossible to disprove it (like intelligent design). But just because I can’t disprove conspiracy theories, doesn’t make them right. The facts are, most conspiracy theories are IMPOSSIBLE to disprove, because, and this is important: any possible evidence or reason AGAINST the theory can be used to SUPPORT it. E.g.:

Rationalist: “But there isn’t even ANY evidence for aliens”

Conspiracy theorist: “Because the government hides it.”

R: “But the government denies that.”

CT: “The government is lying.”

R: “Is there any evidence that the government is lying?”

CT: “No. But that’s just what you’d expect!”

See. You can’t win. There is no point arguing over conspiracy theories; we must just use common sense.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t particularly trust any government when it comes to matters of high-tech or national security, and I don’t think for a second any government would think twice about hiding information from the populace if it thought it was in its best interest.

I don’t believe in alien conspiracies simply because I don’t believe that aliens are visiting earth. It’s that simple.

I’m fairly confident that any enlightened individual, when reviewing the evidence with common sense, would agree with me.

Further reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox/

ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation/

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9 Responses to “My opinion on aliens and UFOs – Mon 19th Mar 07”

  1. jack Says:

    “It is time for the truth to be brought out… Behind the scenes high-ranking Air Force officers are soberly concerned about the UFOs. But through official secrecy and ridicule, many citizens are led to believe the unknown flying objects are nonsense…. I urge immediate Congressional action to reduce the dangers from secrecy about unidentified flying objects.”

    Former CIA Director Vice Admiral Roscoe Hillenkoetter, signed statement to Congress, August 22, 1960.

    “We have, indeed, been contacted — perhaps even visited — by extraterrestrial beings, and the US government, in collusion with the other national powers of the Earth, is determined to keep this information from the general public.

    Victor Marchetti, former Special Assistant to the Executive Director of the CIA, in an article written by him for Second Look entitled “How the CIA Views the UFO Phenomenon”, Vol 1, No 7, Washington, DC, May, 1979.

  2. evanescent Says:

    Hi Jack, and thanks for the feedback.

    You might be wondering my thoughts on Admiral Roscoe Hillenkoetter’s comments and if they’d affect my position. Here goes:

    I ask myself, what is more likely? Are all the facts I wrote about above that make the idea of alien visitation so incredibly improbable more expendible than the testimony of a former high-ranking CIA agent with a government agenda? And the answer continues to be no.

    Let’s also consider what is more likely: that aliens really have visited us and the government wishes to keep this fact top secret and totally suppresses the evidence, but somehow allows this former Director to publically proclaim the fact and even write a book about it?! Or, that the US government is doing what it has done many times, and simply provide a smoke-screen for their own top secret super-technology?

    I find the latter incredibly more likely.

    Mr. Hillenkoetter did write a book called “Aliens from Space”…I haven’t read it personally, but does he have physical evidence or logical proof of alien visitations? I would bet not. But I invite anyone to prove me wrong.

    Robert T. Carroll (skepdic.com) puts it nicely: “Government agents lie for all sorts of reasons, but covering up alien landings does not seem to be one of them.”

    The facts are that less than 2% of all UFO sightings remain UNIDENTIFIED. It appears that governments show little real interest in UFOs. If anything, the mass media and public are ENCOURAGED to believe in UFOs. Books and documentaries about UFOs are very rarely objective, because they are targeted for an audience who wants to believe.

    But most importantly, the total lack of hard evidence and dubious testimonials are hardly strong counter-arguments against the dimensions of space, the age of earth, man, and the universe, that I listed above. It’s easy to dismiss these brute facts when you really WANT to believe in something, but I have no vested interest in anything except the facts.

  3. My Paradox - Tue 17th Apr 07 « evanescent Says:

    […] just by reading about the possibilities of extra-terrestrial life. It was not a waste of time. I’ve already talked about the likelihood of aliens visiting earth, or even being aware of […]

  4. Trisha Says:

    My comment to an alien/UFO freak believer who tries to convert people to this crazy ideology that has been conditioned into the minds of the majority of America.As follows:

    Do you work with the government and Illuminist/ZIONIST bloodline that posts UFO nonsense as a scapegoat to shadow government evils?Such as underground human experimentation.The Soviet Union created the first supposed UFO craft that has the ability to “levitate” most probably using opposite poles being the high powered magnet of the craft and the high powered magnetism naturally within the earth..No UFO’s aliens exist from another planet.It is the evil principalities and powers in the shadows. The aliens are memories implanted via microchips by evil HUMANS and/or underground government bases that kidnap people from above ground and mix(as well as do horrible experiments on them) their human DNA with a variety of animal DNA,the product being the supposed aliens people see which are actually a creation of men on earth from DNA mixture.I read once where an ape carried a human fetus for 9 months.Can’t find it again-maybe an underground experiment. This alien UFO stuff is an end times delusion(2 Thess.2).Most people believe they are from other planets.When they are ready to really depopulate the earth for the elite and their slaves alone to live on then there will be a staged “alien invasion”(of course the shadow government are the perpetrators not martians or beings from another planet-that don’t exist)Look at the crop circles,they look alot like illuminatti symbols in their design and numerology.
    The government started brainwashing and conditioning the public into believing alien from another planet scenario in the 1950’s via television.Thanks to their deceitful work about 85% actually believe in aliens from another planet.

    Alot of abductees remember HUMAN MEN in lab coats.

    Why do you think the government doesn’t get all worked up about aliens/UFOS?They know it is them and are sitting back and laughing that many believe in martians from other planets that don’t exist.People love and worship this corrupt government/Beast system mentioned in revelation to the point they have created a false God and IDOL.I do not believe in anyone except Almighty God and His WORD.I don’t even believe in myself.

    Wake up from your slumber Gods people,pray and pass this on if you find God says I speak truth from prayer.Trust in Him with all your heart to lead and guide you on the straight and NARROW path which the bible says the majority of people go on the wide path.This coincides with one fact that the majority follow the alien/UFO from another planet lie.

    sincerely,
    Trisha

    P.S. UFO ships are top secret government craft.The soviet first created such ships that could levitate,decades ago.I think they use some sort of magnetic force.

    I just wanted to add that its probable the government wrote (fictitious) supposed reliable findings on roswell and alien UFO sightings to make it more convincing they exist in case people start questioning and they will have alot to show them(their smokescreen to their evil NWO domination plan). Just because it is on paper does not make it true.They have to make it look like they are no part of it and this is their back up plan to “create” alien evidence and testimonials.

  5. evanescent Says:

    Hi Trisha,

    unfortunately, if you had any real contact with atheists who anyone versed in counter-arguing the bible, you would know how futile preaching really is, especially quoting the bible and calling on people to attain salvation. It simply doesn’t work that way, and the truth is, an honest and critical analysis of the bible would more than likely deconvert you than convert others!

    “I don’t even believe in myself”

    If you don’t believe you exist, how can you know your own beliefs, including those about God. Therefore you cannot know god.

  6. Idetrorce Says:

    very interesting, but I don’t agree with you
    Idetrorce

  7. evanescent Says:

    Which part of my complete annihilation of the notion that UFOs are visiting earth did you disagree with?

  8. Kyle Says:

    I believe that life is out there some where because the universe is to big for there not to be, but I believe in God, and if he did create life some where else in the universe, we might not ever have contact with them, and if we do that means there way more advanced than us. there isn’t a limit to how much technology we can have. God would wipe us out before we become to advanced in technology. Why, because if we become to advanced in technology we could become more advanced than GOD himshelf. I’m sure he wouldn’t let that happen.

  9. evanescent Says:

    The image you paint of God, Kyle, is of a petty insecure psychopathic tyrant willing to commit murder on the most horrific scale on his own children for the “crime” of advancing themselves through intelligence and scientific inquiry. Hmm now that I think about it this is the perfect representation of the biblical God.


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